Osama bin Laden is Dead

Reports have surfaced that al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was killed in an air assault on his compound last week in Pakistan by American Special Operations forces. Military officials waited in order to confirm his identity using DNA tests.

While folks may be quick to put on their party hats and pull out the champagne bottles, the harsh reality is that Osama bin Laden's death changes nothing. bin Laden was a mastermind behind al Qaeda, he built a complex transnational (or multinational depending on how you look at it) franchise based organization that looks a whole lot like McDonalds. It has a chain of command, independently operating cells across North Africa, Central Asia, the Arabian Peninsula, southern Asia, Europe and presumably the United States. It is the Quetta Shura (located in Quetta, Pakistan), not al Qaeda that is running the insurgency in Afghanistan. Independent cells across the world will still continue to strike, as they did a few days ago a few days ago in a crowded marketplace in Marrakesh, Morocco.

The war in Afghanistan, which is now about nation building and fighting the Taliban (and what few al Qaeda fighters are still there), will continue. There will not be any mass surrenders of al Qaeda fighters, nor will there be any great armistice. This conflict will simply continue on.

Ho Chi Minh, the revolutionary leader in Vietnam that led the fight for unification under Communist rule died of natural causes midway through the Vietnam War. Four years later, the United States threw in the towel. Six years later, Vietnam was reunified under Communist rule.

Hopefully history will not repeat itself.

There may be hope for the GOP.

Former Utah governor and ambassador to the People's Republic of China, Jon Huntsman, is making a play for South Carolina.

There may be hope for the Republicans after all.

A boardroom in Manhattan is missing its idiot

I have had enough of hearing about Donald Trump's presidential ambitions.

Why on Earth would we elect a man who runs on business credentials, yet has managed to have his namesake flagship operation run into Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Three times.

A New York Times article sums it up best with this gem:

The bank seized on the opportunity to discuss Mr. Trump’s reputation. “Trump is no stranger to overdue debt,” it said in asking that his suit be thrown out of court. It noted that Mr. Trump’s casino operations have filed for bankruptcy twice, adding, “This suit is classic Trump.”

Aside from his own personal financial misadventures, Donald Trump has built his campaign on xenophobia, targeting Saudi Arabia and China (among other countries) for the problems America has, while making absurd statements about the Arab League having money "pouring out of their ears." Of course, this brings into question Donald Trump's understanding of "wealth" seeing as Somalia, Djibouti, Comoros, Mauritania, and Yemen are member states.

That, and he will not drop the Birth Certificate issue.

The man is a professional buffoon who has had the good fortune to play around with daddy's money for a few decades too many. Republicans, stop playing with the newest train wreck of a candidate (joining Palin, Bachmann, Gingrich and Huckabee), and field someone who could actually win. I will say it again. Jon Huntsman.

A four party system?

Rather than waste my time telling you what you already know, the future of American politics needs a little bit of an overhaul. Goodbye two party system, hello four party chaos and the associated coalitions and other highly un-American, parliamentary sounding terms that we have avoided for the better part of 250 years.

New Federalist Party (NDP): Fiscally liberal, social liberals (Blue)
New Republican Party (NRP): Fiscally moderate, social conservatives (Red)
American Libertarian Party (ALP): Fiscally conservative, social liberals (Green)
New Republican Party (NRP): Fiscally conservative, social conservatives (Yellow)

A primitive, hypothetical map showing what a four party system would look like in a Presidential election.

The Yemeni trainwreck just got worse

Continuing strife in Yemen should come as no surprise. It is quickly diving towards the unfortunate label of "failed state." First, it was President Ali Abdullah Saleh's arbitrary dismissal of his cabinet. News from Sana'a now indicates that four ranking military officers, including General Ali Abdullaha Aliewa and Brigadier Generals Hameed Al Koshebi, Mohammed Ali Mohsen, and Nasser Eljahori have pulled their support for Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh. They follow Major General Ali Mohsen Saleh, who pledged his support for the protesters earlier. Major General Saleh's switching of loyalties likely initiated the defection of other officers, as Major General Saleh is part of President Saleh's family.

This defection has implications that reach far beyond Yemen's borders. In addition to massive anti-government protests, Yemen's military has been fighting al Qaeda and tribal militants in the mountainous fringe of the country - with substantial American assistance. President Saleh has also been struggling to hold together the country's fractious tribal network, as well as play down fears of a South Yemeni secession.

The collapse of the military command structure also presents the danger of an escalation of the ongoing conflict, this time between loyalist forces and those who are now backing the protesters. This risk is not as likely, however, as the defection of these high ranking generals may lead to other generals following in their footsteps. The real immediate risk in Sana'a is of a coup d'état led by a group of these generals, which would likely be welcomed by the people - unless the generals refused to relinquish power.

Yemen is also unique in that it is supported by the United States, yet it receives support from the current Iranian regime, which sees it as a peripheral ally along with Lebanon. This alliance, however, is largely a relationship of convenience that would lose its value if another power stepped in to back thew new leadership. Iran, however, has sought to win support among Arabs by condemning violence against protesters. In yet another twist, Iran support Houthi rebels in Yemen's north. These rebels, however, have proven to be a greater problem for Saudi forces than th Such a move would likely see Yemen establish closer ties with Riyadh at the expense of Tehran, while calming secessionist calls by the Sunni south.

One thing is certain, the never-ending-train-wreck of Yemeni internal politics got messier. Again.

NATO's Admiral A(c)kbar Moment

There is only one video clip appropriate to describe what just happened between NATO and the Arab League.



In a full about face, the Arab League condemned the NATO led attack on Libyan air defenses in support of a Security Council resolution calling for protection of civilians.

For those with short memory spans, the Arab League called for a no-fly zone over Libya. It is quite clear that the Arab League was woefully unaware of what a no-fly zone is, and their political posturing has led to America's direct involvement in a third Muslim country in the past decade.

NATO, and the United States in particular, need to reconsider and reevaluate their involvement in this operation.

A Regime is Dead

In a turn of events whose origins go back three weeks, NATO forces began bombing military targets around Tripoli and Sitre in Libya as part of Operation Odyssey Dawn. The targeted attacks against Qaddafi's air defense forces represents an escalation in support of earlier proposals calling for a no-fly zone, but presents a greater question for the West - what will happen if and when Qaddafi falls? Opposition forces collapsed yesterday under pressure from Qaddafi, do they have the strength to rule a deeply divided country? Will Libya be able to stay politically unified in the aftermath of this conflict?