Continuing strife in Yemen should come as no surprise. It is quickly diving towards the unfortunate label of "failed state." First, it was President Ali Abdullah Saleh's arbitrary dismissal of his cabinet. News from Sana'a now indicates that four ranking military officers, including General Ali Abdullaha Aliewa and Brigadier Generals Hameed Al Koshebi, Mohammed Ali Mohsen, and Nasser Eljahori have pulled their support for Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh. They follow Major General Ali Mohsen Saleh, who pledged his support for the protesters earlier. Major General Saleh's switching of loyalties likely initiated the defection of other officers, as Major General Saleh is part of President Saleh's family.
This defection has implications that reach far beyond Yemen's borders. In addition to massive anti-government protests, Yemen's military has been fighting al Qaeda and tribal militants in the mountainous fringe of the country - with substantial American assistance. President Saleh has also been struggling to hold together the country's fractious tribal network, as well as play down fears of a South Yemeni secession.
The collapse of the military command structure also presents the danger of an escalation of the ongoing conflict, this time between loyalist forces and those who are now backing the protesters. This risk is not as likely, however, as the defection of these high ranking generals may lead to other generals following in their footsteps. The real immediate risk in Sana'a is of a coup d'état led by a group of these generals, which would likely be welcomed by the people - unless the generals refused to relinquish power.
Yemen is also unique in that it is supported by the United States, yet it receives support from the current Iranian regime, which sees it as a peripheral ally along with Lebanon. This alliance, however, is largely a relationship of convenience that would lose its value if another power stepped in to back thew new leadership. Iran, however, has sought to win support among Arabs by condemning violence against protesters. In yet another twist, Iran support Houthi rebels in Yemen's north. These rebels, however, have proven to be a greater problem for Saudi forces than th Such a move would likely see Yemen establish closer ties with Riyadh at the expense of Tehran, while calming secessionist calls by the Sunni south.
One thing is certain, the never-ending-train-wreck of Yemeni internal politics got messier. Again.
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