The Yemeni trainwreck just got worse

Continuing strife in Yemen should come as no surprise. It is quickly diving towards the unfortunate label of "failed state." First, it was President Ali Abdullah Saleh's arbitrary dismissal of his cabinet. News from Sana'a now indicates that four ranking military officers, including General Ali Abdullaha Aliewa and Brigadier Generals Hameed Al Koshebi, Mohammed Ali Mohsen, and Nasser Eljahori have pulled their support for Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh. They follow Major General Ali Mohsen Saleh, who pledged his support for the protesters earlier. Major General Saleh's switching of loyalties likely initiated the defection of other officers, as Major General Saleh is part of President Saleh's family.

This defection has implications that reach far beyond Yemen's borders. In addition to massive anti-government protests, Yemen's military has been fighting al Qaeda and tribal militants in the mountainous fringe of the country - with substantial American assistance. President Saleh has also been struggling to hold together the country's fractious tribal network, as well as play down fears of a South Yemeni secession.

The collapse of the military command structure also presents the danger of an escalation of the ongoing conflict, this time between loyalist forces and those who are now backing the protesters. This risk is not as likely, however, as the defection of these high ranking generals may lead to other generals following in their footsteps. The real immediate risk in Sana'a is of a coup d'état led by a group of these generals, which would likely be welcomed by the people - unless the generals refused to relinquish power.

Yemen is also unique in that it is supported by the United States, yet it receives support from the current Iranian regime, which sees it as a peripheral ally along with Lebanon. This alliance, however, is largely a relationship of convenience that would lose its value if another power stepped in to back thew new leadership. Iran, however, has sought to win support among Arabs by condemning violence against protesters. In yet another twist, Iran support Houthi rebels in Yemen's north. These rebels, however, have proven to be a greater problem for Saudi forces than th Such a move would likely see Yemen establish closer ties with Riyadh at the expense of Tehran, while calming secessionist calls by the Sunni south.

One thing is certain, the never-ending-train-wreck of Yemeni internal politics got messier. Again.

NATO's Admiral A(c)kbar Moment

There is only one video clip appropriate to describe what just happened between NATO and the Arab League.



In a full about face, the Arab League condemned the NATO led attack on Libyan air defenses in support of a Security Council resolution calling for protection of civilians.

For those with short memory spans, the Arab League called for a no-fly zone over Libya. It is quite clear that the Arab League was woefully unaware of what a no-fly zone is, and their political posturing has led to America's direct involvement in a third Muslim country in the past decade.

NATO, and the United States in particular, need to reconsider and reevaluate their involvement in this operation.

A Regime is Dead

In a turn of events whose origins go back three weeks, NATO forces began bombing military targets around Tripoli and Sitre in Libya as part of Operation Odyssey Dawn. The targeted attacks against Qaddafi's air defense forces represents an escalation in support of earlier proposals calling for a no-fly zone, but presents a greater question for the West - what will happen if and when Qaddafi falls? Opposition forces collapsed yesterday under pressure from Qaddafi, do they have the strength to rule a deeply divided country? Will Libya be able to stay politically unified in the aftermath of this conflict?

Qaddafi's Last Hurrah

Two weeks ago I said not to discount Colonel Qaddafi just yet.

I may well be right in the end. As Libya has fallen further into what is now a civil war, Colonel Qaddafi made a conscious decision to gamble the future of his country on his ability to crush the insurgency. Colonel Qaddafi's bet, after watching forty years of Western planning, is that he can secure his country, crush the insurgency and restore a semblance of peace and order in his before the world community aligns itself to take military action against his regime. In the past two decades, he has seen several cases in which the United Nations or NATO have taken months to mount an effective response to the actions taken by a state.

Remember the Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait in August of 1990? Desert Shield lasted for five months before a counter-attack to liberate Kuwait was launched. Before NATO's intervention in the Balkans was initiated by a two year long no-fly zone, during which time ethnic continued to operate with little restriction until Operation Deny Flight, whose bombing campaign formally brought Slobodan Milosevic, the President of Serbia, to the negotiating table during the Dayton Accords. NATO's second intervention in 1999 took months for forces to be mustered - and Serbia was just across the Adriatic Sea from Aviano Air Base.

The threat of a no-fly zone does not scare Qaddafi as much as we think it does. No-fly zones are exactly that - unless rules of engagement are changed to allow for attacks against Libyan forces loyal to Colonel Qaddafi, in which case the intervention is a targeted bombing campaign.

Colonel Qaddafi is trying to beat the clock here, and unless the United Nations Security Council can reach an agreement to provide forces for a formal humanitarian intervention, which is unlikely considering China's opposition even to the implementation of a no-fly zone, Colonel Qaddafi may well be "Colonel Qaddafi" for a few more years.

High Speed Rail's Magic Number: 125

With Governor Rick Scott's rejection of federal dollars to build high speed rail between Tampa and Orlando, it is time that rail advocates think smart, and not fast about the future of passenger rail in America. The current fascination with going fast is distracting us from the real issue, that American trains are incredibly slow while intercity frequencies are low outside of a handful of corridors. This may sound like a retreat, but it is really a leap forward.

The solution? Focus on achievable, short to mid term goals. While the magical 200 mile per hour corridors we hear about so much make great campaign promises and pipe dreams for transit nerds, there is a much better number out there that delivers much of the benefits of high speed rail without the costs: 125 miles per hour. Why 125 miles per hour? The equipment exists in American today, it is operable on existing corridors with some modification, it can use existing rolling stock, it offers benefit to freight rail and is cheaper to build that a true high speed rail line.

Let me apply the 125 mile per hour speed to a number of corridors, both existing and potential:
Corridor Distance Travel Time Current Rail Travel Time (if available)
Chicago - Milwaukee 89 miles 0:43hr 1:30hr (Hiawatha
Chicago - St. Louis 284 miles 2:17hr 5:30hr (Lincoln Service)
Ft. Worth - Houston 260 miles 2:05hr N/A
New York-Boston 230 miles 1:45hr 3:40hr (Acela), 4:15hr (Regional)
Houston - New Orleans 336 miles 2:41hr 7:50hr (Sunset Limited)
New York-Philadelphia 89 miles 0:45hr 0:55hr (Acela), 1:05hr (Regional)
New York-Washington 225 miles 1:45hr 2:45hr (Acela), 3:20hr (Regional)
Philadelphia-Pittsburgh 355 miles 3:50hr 7:50hr (Pennsylvanian)
San Luis Obispo - San Diego 350 miles 2:48hr 8:30hr (Pacific Surfliner)
Seattle - Portland 186 miles 1:30hr 3:30hr (Amtrak Cascades)
Seattle - Vancouver 157 miles 1:15hr 4:00hr (Amtrak Cascades)
Washington-Raleigh 306 miles 2:53hr 5:55hr (Carolinian/Silver Star)

The time savings are significant. In order to whet America's appetite for high speed rail, the American people need to see faster and more frequent rail service to start with. Once that can be demonstrated, the 200 mile per hour corridors being advertised can be considered in earnest.

Beyond moving people faster, boosting speeds to a faster 125 miles per hour bring relatively close cities, such as Washington and Richmond, Chicago and Milwaukee or San Diego and Los Angeles, to becoming neighbor cities. While intercity trains make the downtown to downtown hop in record time, commuter trains would create large commutable corridors. Richmond, Virginia would be forty-five minutes from Washington, DC's downtown - for reference's sake, the average commute in the District-Maryland-Virginia area is 30.1 minutes, from outlying areas in Prince Williams and Stafford counties that average rises above 40 minutes.

The real hurdle is convincing the freight railroads to get onboard with this proposal. This is the expensive part - to keep traffic separate, new tracks would need to be laid alongside freight lines, which would be mean double, triple or even quadruple tracking some lines. The freight railroads would benefit, as this would free up capacity by removing pesky passenger trains from their lines, while giving them the opportunity to operate their own faster electric freight trains.

If all else fails, we can always dream.

The Army PT Test goes Expeditionary

Things are changing in the military, albeit at the pace of molasses. The newest change will come in the form of an updated Army Physical Fitness Test (APFT).

Out with the old three event test, including two minutes of sit-ups, two minutes of pushups and a two mile run, and in with the new. The new APFT, if the changes are approved, will lead to a new five event test. This test would include a 1.5 mile run (like the Air Force and Navy, but half of the Marine Corps 3 mile run), a 60 yard shuttle run, one minute of "the rower," one minute of push ups and a long jump event.

A second, pre-combat portion will administered prior to soldiers being deployed. This will include a battle-buddy drag, an obstacle course and a quarter mile run in combat gear.

APFT, meet the President's Challenge.